Executive Summary
In 2026, global trade faces a significant slowdown after moderate growth in 2025. Trade tensions, tariffs, and economic uncertainty are hindering global exchange, although technology sectors and emerging markets are showing resilience.
Global Slowdown
The WTO has lowered its projections for global trade growth, anticipating very limited progress in the volume of goods due to weaker global demand and restrictive tariff policies.
Trade Tensions
Tariff barriers and political disputes are affecting business confidence and investment, slowing international trade flows.
Resilient Sectors and Regions
Despite the slowdown, regions such as East Asia and Africa, and sectors such as technology and manufacturing, continue to show growth, partially offsetting the decline in other areas.
Export Outlook
Some countries, such as Mexico, are projecting record export levels thanks to diversification strategies and regional agreements that mitigate the negative impacts of global trade.
Conclusion
2026 will be a year of transition for global trade:
Limited global growth.
Emerging markets and technology as drivers of resilience.
Diversification and key regional agreements to mitigate risks and maintain international competitiveness.
